2018 Hurricane Season...So Far

The 2018 Hurricane Season has been a fairly quiet one so far with only 5 named storms and 2 hurricanes. We are now in the middle of the most active part of it, and things still look to be very quiet.

Unlike a year ago when we were dealing with a Category 4 Hurricane Harvey along the Texas Coast, we are not seeing as many storms. There are a few factors that are playing a role this year. For example, we were under the influence of a La Nina, the unusual cooling of the Tropical Pacific Waters. During a La Nina, the Atlantic Ocean does not see much wind shear, winds aloft that rip up storms, and this allows for the development of more storms. This year, we are in a neutral environment in the Pacific to a weak El Nino, the unusual warming of the waters in the Pacific. When you are neutral or have an El Nino, you have more wind shear, so you will not have as many storms developing.

Additionally, the waters of the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are below normal. A minimum water temperature of 80 is needed for a storm to develop, and we barely have that in those locations this year.

Lastly, we have seen an above average amount of dry air and dust coming off Africa from the Sahara Desert. This air moves west right across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The dry air and dust will "choke" a storm just like it hurts your car engine.

When you factor all of those elements in, we traditionally have fewer named storms during the season, and that looks to be the case this year. Experts at Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) agree. Therefore, their forecasts show a just below average number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricane this season.

However, you need to remember it just takes one storm to make it an active season. Make sure you stay prepared this season, just in case. -Dave Nussbaum